Reliability of regression based hybrid machine learning models for the prediction of solar photovoltaics power generation

Solar Photovoltaics (PVs) have become widespread as micro-distributed electric power generators in urban residential and commercial areas due to their affordability and minimal maintenance requirements. Despite these advantages, PV generation is intermittent, necessitating the implementation of robust predictive algorithms to capture power generation trends effectively. Accurate PV generation prediction is crucial for balancing energy demand and supply. Precise predictions help utilities use other grid resources efficiently, enhance market participation, and make informed planning decisions. Therefore, ensuring the precise performance of predictive models is imperative in the power generation industry. However, the performance of the predictive models typically fluctuates over time, necessitating a reliability assessment of their performance. This paper develops a hybrid machine learning model by integrating the support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) with multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) to predict the hourly PV power generation for 3-day and 7-day periods in three urban areas of North Dakota. The performance of the models has been recorded over a year, and a probability distribution model is proposed to demonstrate the hybrid algorithm's reliability and effectiveness. Results show the proposed prediction model is more reliable for shorter prediction periods. The hybrid-MARS models significantly improve prediction reliability compared to the stand-alone MARS model. Among these models, MARS-SVM exhibits the highest reliability and consistently better accuracy than other hybrid models.