Global Spatial Projections of Forest Soil Respiration and Associated Uncertainties

被引:2
作者
Feng, Lingxia [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Jiang, Junjie [3 ,4 ]
Hu, Junguo [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ]
Zhu, Chao [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Wu, Zhiwei [1 ,2 ]
Li, Guangliang [1 ,2 ]
Chen, Taolve [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Zhejiang A&F Univ, Coll Math & Comp Sci, Hangzhou 311300, Peoples R China
[2] Zhejiang A&F Univ, Zhejiang Prov Key Lab Forestry Intelligent Monitor, Hangzhou 311300, Peoples R China
[3] Zhejiang A&F Univ, State Forestry Adm Key Lab Forestry Sensing Techno, Hangzhou 311300, Peoples R China
[4] Zhejiang A&F Univ, Coll Chem & Mat Engn, Hangzhou 311300, Peoples R China
来源
FORESTS | 2024年 / 15卷 / 11期
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
global forest; soil respiration; autotrophic respiration; heterotrophic respiration; random forest model; uncertainties of model predictions; future prediction; HETEROTROPHIC RESPIRATION; CARBON STORAGE; TEMPERATURE; VARIABILITY; SENSITIVITY; ECOSYSTEMS; PATTERNS; DATABASE; CLIMATE; BIASES;
D O I
10.3390/f15111982
中图分类号
S7 [林业];
学科分类号
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要
The accurate prediction of global forest soil respiration (Rs) is critical for climate change research. Rs consists of autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic (Rh) respiration, which respond differently to environmental factors. Predicting Rs as a single flux can be biased; therefore, Ra and Rh should be predicted separately to improve prediction accuracy. In this study, we used the SRDB_V5 database and the random forest model to analyze the uncertainty in predicting Rs using a single global model (SGM) and Ra/Rh using a specific categorical model (SCM) and predicted the spatial dynamics of the distribution pattern of forest Ra, Rh, and Rs in the future under the two different climate patterns. The results show that Rs is higher under tropical and inland climatic conditions, while Rh fluctuates less than Ra and Rs. In addition, the SCM predictions better capture key environmental factors and are more consistent with actual data. In the SSP585 (high emissions) scenario, Rs is projected to increase by 19.59 percent, while in the SSP126 (low emissions) scenario, Rs increases by only 3.76 percent over 80 years, which underlines the need for SCM in future projections.
引用
收藏
页数:16
相关论文
共 56 条
  • [1] An integrated approach based on the correction of imbalanced small datasets and the application of machine learning algorithms to predict total phosphorus concentration in rivers
    Almeida, Manuel
    Coelho, Pedro Santos
    [J]. ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS, 2023, 76
  • [2] On using stratified two-stage sampling for large-scale multispecies surveys
    Aubry, Philippe
    Quaintenne, Gwenael
    Dupuy, Jeremy
    Francesiaz, Charlotte
    Guillemain, Matthieu
    Caizergues, Alain
    [J]. ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS, 2023, 77
  • [3] Influence of environmental factors on autotrophic, soil and ecosystem respirations in Canadian boreal forest
    Bhanja, Soumendra N.
    Wang, Junye
    [J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS, 2021, 125
  • [4] A global relationship between the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of soil respiration?
    Bond-Lamberty, B
    Wang, CK
    Gower, ST
    [J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2004, 10 (10) : 1756 - 1766
  • [5] A global database of soil respiration data
    Bond-Lamberty, B.
    Thomson, A.
    [J]. BIOGEOSCIENCES, 2010, 7 (06) : 1915 - 1926
  • [6] Globally rising soil heterotrophic respiration over recent decades
    Bond-Lamberty, Ben
    Bailey, Vanessa L.
    Chen, Min
    Gough, Christopher M.
    Vargas, Rodrigo
    [J]. NATURE, 2018, 560 (7716) : 80 - +
  • [7] Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record
    Bond-Lamberty, Ben
    Thomson, Allison
    [J]. NATURE, 2010, 464 (7288) : 579 - U132
  • [8] Bradford MA, 2016, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V6, P751, DOI [10.1038/nclimate3071, 10.1038/NCLIMATE3071]
  • [9] Cathcart JF, 2007, J FOREST, V105, P167
  • [10] Analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in soil CO2 flux in alpine meadow of Qilian Mountain
    Chang, Zongqiang
    Feng, Qi
    Si, Jianhua
    Su, Yonghong
    Xi, Haiyang
    Li, Jianlin
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY, 2009, 58 (03): : 483 - 490