Carbon emissions and drivers across five urban agglomerations of China: Comparison between the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods

Five national-level urban agglomerations in China, namely the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYR), Pearl River Delta (PRD), and Chengdu-Chongqing (CY), have undergone rapid economic development, accompanied by a surge in carbon emissions. Notably, there exists a gap in existing research that hinders comprehensive comparative studies on the carbon emissions of these urban agglomerations during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods, respectively. In this study, we comparatively analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and spatial clustering characteristics of carbon emissions and their driving factors across the five urban agglomerations during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods using spatial autocorrelation and multiple spatial econometric models. The main results are as follows: firstly, the total carbon emissions across the YRD are the highest, while the average carbon emissions in BTH are higher than those across other urban agglomerations. Secondly, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the main related socioeconomic factors for carbon emissions of the BTH, PRD, YRD, MRYR and CY are per capita GDP, general public budget expenditure, urbanization rate, population density, and industrial structure, respectively. Thirdly, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, industrial structure have a close link with carbon emissions across BTH and MRYR; the carbon emissions across PRD have close correlations with urbanization rate and general public budget expenditures; across YRD and CY, the key associated driver was the general public budget expenditures. All in all, these findings offer valuable insights for shaping effective emission reduction policies tailored to the unique characteristics of each urban agglomeration.