Adaptive robust optimization framework for market-based wind power investment

Wind is distinguished by its eco-friendliness and sustainability, making it one of the most rapidly expanding forms of renewable energy sources (RESs). Hence, it is necessary to determine the most profitable plan for wind farm installation. This paper constructs a novel scheme for market-based wind power investment (WPI) problems using adaptive robust optimization (ARO). A tri-level robust WPI (RWPI) model is established, the first level of which is to minimize the investment cost plus the worst-case loss. In the second level, the worst-case loss (also known as the maximum regret) is identified by maximizing the minimum value of minus profit over the uncertainty sets. The third level maximizes the wind farm profit. Since the profit calculation requires the determination of the locational marginal price (LMP), the third level constitutes bi-level programming, with the upper level being the profit maximization and the lower level being the market clearing process. First, Karush-KuhnTucker (KKT) conditions are applied to convert the bi-level model to a single-level model, resulting in an ARO with binary variables at the third level. Afterward, the nested column-and-constraint generation (NCCG) strategy is employed to solve the ARO with mixed-integer recourse. A case study is used to verify the scalability and practical applicability of the proposed model.