Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space at county level in Three Gorges reservoir areas

Regional Production-Living-Ecological Space (PLES) has been one of the most important indicators in territorial space planning. Spatial-temporal evolution and development trends can be greatly contributed to the orderly utilization, renovation, and restoration of regional territorial space in the future. In this study, a transfer matrix and dynamic attitude model was proposed to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of the scale, structure, and pattern of PLES from 1990 to 2020. A Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model was then used to simulate the land spatial pattern of Shizhu County, Chongqing City, China in 2035. Three scenarios were performed on natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection. The results showed that: 1) The ecological space was the main area, followed by the production space, and the living space with the least proportion. In general, the production space was the main area in the west, whereas, the ecological space was in the east. The PLES was also dominated by the green ecological, and agricultural production space, accounting for over 65% and 30%, respectively. As such, diversified geographical characteristics were created in this case. Among them, the green ecological space was distributed in the Fangdu Mountain Range and the Qiyao Mountain Range, leading to two natural ecological space barriers running diagonally across the whole territory. Agricultural production space was mainly distributed in the trough and valley between the two mountain ranges and along the Yangtze River in the western part of the county. 2) The production space decreased slightly during the study period. By contrast, there were slight and significant increases in the ecological and living space, respectively. The transfer of PLES showed the spatial characteristics of “overall dispersion and local concentration”. The expansion of industrial production space was mainly distributed in Xituo Town along the Yangtze River and Xilu Street in the study area. In addition, the urban area was located, while other townships were scattered. The expansion of urban living space was mainly distributed in Wanan and Nanbin Street, where the urban area was located, while other new spaces were scattered throughout the county. 3) There were significant changes in the PLES under the three scenarios. Specifically, the agricultural production space was transferred into other spaces under the natural development scenario. A good balance was also gained in the area of transferring. By contrast, there were different degrees of expansion in other spaces. A significant shrinkage trend was found in the green ecological space. Moreover, the transfer out of agricultural production space was strictly controlled under the scenario of arable land protection. As such, the arable land was effectively protected during this time. However, the green ecological space was the largest transfer out space. Furthermore, the ecological space pattern was effectively protected with the increased area under the ecological protection scenario. But, the agricultural production space shrunk significantly, while the area of all other types of space increased. These results were better correspondent with the socio-economic development trend and regional development pattern in the study area. The finding can provide theoretical support for territorial space management and optimization. A recommendation was made on the national spatial control to improve the level of intensive use of living space, for the better protection of agricultural production space, as well as the protection and restoration of ecological space in the future. © 2022 Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering. All rights reserved.