Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Habitat of Brown-Eared Pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum), An Endemic and Endangered Animals to China

被引：1
|
作者：
Li H. [1 ]
Han P. [2 ]
Niu C. [2 ]
Yuan X. [2 ]
Xing L. [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Modern Agriculture and Bioengineering, Yangtze Normal University, Chongqing
[2] Yan'an Huanglongshan National Forestry Administration, Yan'an
来源：
Linye Kexue/Scientia Silvae Sinicae | 2021年 / 57卷 / 10期
关键词：
Climate change; Crossoptilon mantchuricum; Dominate factor; Jackknife test; MaxEnt model;
D O I：
10.11707/j.1001-7488.20211010
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
【Objective】 Global climate change is one of the main factors causing biodiversity reduction and species extinction. The research on the potential habitat changes of brown-eared pheasants under the present and future climate change scenarios has great significance for establishing relevant conservation policies. 【Method】 Based on the data at 152 distribution locations and 26 high-resolution environmental variables, the potential habitat of brown-eared pheasant was analyzed by using MaxEnt model under the current conditions, and the future distributions were also simulated for the periods of 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 predicted in the Special Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).【Result】 The AUC values for all training and testing model were greater than 0.807, indicating that MaxEnt model is excellent in predicting its potential habitat. At present, the contribution rates of the dominate factors to brown-eared pheasant habitat were annual precipitation (15.4%), mean diurnal range (15.3%), vegetation types (9.7%), precipitation in the driest season (9.1%) and in the wettest season (8.7%), distance to road (8.2%) and water source (7.8%), with their cumulative contributions of 74.2%. The thresholds of each factor were 525-580 mm, 8.2-10.8 ℃, preference for broadleaved forest and mixed forest, 12.4-17.1 mm, 310-340 mm, 0-12.5 mm and more than 270 m, and 0-20 m and 105-220 m, respectively. The suitable habitats of brown-eared pheasant were mainly distributed in Huanglong Mountain of Shaanxi Province, Lüliang Mountain of Shanxi Province, Xiaowutai Mountain in Hebei Province and Baihua Mountain of Beijing. The proportion of suitable, moderate and unsuitable areas in this study was 6.45, 19.92 and 73.62%, respectively. Compared with that in the current condition, the livable habitat of the pheasant shows a increase trend in the future, and the suitable and moderately suitable habitat has the same trend. Meanwhile, it is almost unchanged between 2050s and 2070s. 【Conclusion】 The potential distribution areas of the pheasant in this study area are mainly in Huanglong Mountain of Shaanxi Province, Lüliang Mountain of Shanxi Province, Xiaowutai Mountain in Hebei Province and Baihua Mountain of Beijing City. The livable habitats of the pheasant will increase in the future. The dominate factors affecting the distribution of brown-eared pheasant are annual precipitation, mean diurnal range, vegetation types, precipitation of the driest and the wettest quarter, distance to road and water source. This study reminds us to strengthen the protection and management of the suitable and moderate areas, and meanwhile, strengthen evergreen coniferous forest planting and population control in the reserve. © 2021, Editorial Department of Scientia Silvae Sinicae. All right reserved.
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页码：102 / 110
页数：8
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