Climate Forecasts. Part I: Current Status and Development Prospects

被引：0

作者：

Kulikova, I. A. ^{[1
]}

Vilfand, R. M. ^{[1
]}

Khan, V. M. ^{[1
,2
]}

Kruglova, E. N. ^{[1
]}

Tishchenko, V. A. ^{[1
]}

Emelina, S. V. ^{[1
]}

Kaverina, E. S. ^{[1
]}

Nabokova, E. V. ^{[1
]}

Subbotin, A. V. ^{[1
]}

Sumerova, K. A. ^{[1
]}

Tolstykh, M. A. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Hydrometeorol Res Ctr Russian Federat, Moscow 123376, Russia

[2] Russian Acad Sci, Marchuk Inst Numer Math, Moscow 119333, Russia

来源：

RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY | 2024年 / 49卷 / 07期

基金：

俄罗斯科学基金会;

关键词：

climate forecasts; hydrodynamic modeling; predictability; climate services; regional climate forums; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; VERSION; MODEL; TEMPERATURE; PREDICTION; SKILL; EARTH;

D O I：

10.3103/S106837392407001X

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The physical background and main types of climate forecasts issued by the world meteorological centers are considered. It is emphasized that modern forecasting systems have an integrated nature and combine not only data assimilation systems and global numerical atmosphere-ocean-land models, but also support infrastructure for providing forecast products to users. The features of the forecast system of the Hydrometcenter of Russia/North Eurasia Climate Centre (NEACC) and other world meteorological centers are compared. It is noted that, unlike other centers, the forecast system of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia/NEACC is based on the integrated use of synoptic, statistical, and hydrodynamic methods. It has been revealed that new trends and directions in the development of the forecast system are associated with the emergence of a new version of the SL-AV global semi-Lagrangian finite-difference atmosphere model of the Hydrometcenter of Russia and the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS) with an expanded (up to 61 members) forecast ensemble, as well as with using the INR RAS climate model (INM-CM5) and additional applications designed for interaction with various economic sectors. The findings may be useful in determining a vector of future research aimed at developing the Russian climate prediction system.

引用

页码：563 / 575

页数：13

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