Probabilistic Assessment of Power Flow Risk in Inter-provincial Electricity Spot Market Considering Source-load Uncertainty

被引：0
|
作者：
Wu, Zhenrong [1 ]
Yang, Jianbin [1 ]
Ye, Lin [1 ]
Wang, Delin [2 ]
Wang, Chao [2 ]
Shi, Xin [3 ]
Cui, Hui [4 ]
Wang, Fangyu [5 ]
机构：
[1] College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Haidian District, Beijing
[2] National Power Dispatch and Control Center, Xicheng District, Beijing
[3] State Grid Big Data Center, Xicheng District, Beijing
[4] China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing
[5] State Grid Beijing Electric Power Research Institute, Fengtai District, Beijing
来源：
Dianwang Jishu/Power System Technology | 2024年 / 48卷 / 09期
关键词：
inter-provincial electricity spot market; probabilistic analysis; risk assessment; source-load uncertainty;
D O I：
10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.2289
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The penetration of renewable energy is gradually increasing in the context of new power system construction, and the uncertainty of the source-load side increases the risk of inter-provincial power spot market operation. Aiming at this problem, a probabilistic assessment method of the current tidal risk of inter-provincial power spot market liaison line that considers source-load bilateral uncertainty is proposed. First, the impact of source-load bilateral uncertainty on interprovincial electricity spot market clearing is analyzed, and a joint source-load uncertainty model is established to provide a data basis for market clearing. Then, a two-layer optimization model for inter-provincial electricity spot market clearing is designed to calculate the tidal clearing model results for inter-provincial liaison lines. Finally, to characterize the risk of source-load bilateral uncertainty to the security of power market clearing, three metrics are proposed to assess the uncertainty risk of the contact line currents: the capacity occupancy rate, the stability of the current probability, and the risk of the current stability. Simulation tests were conducted using data from a provincial power company, and the results were compared with the evaluation results under different uncertainty modeling methods and different confidence intervals to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. © 2024 Power System Technology Press. All rights reserved.
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页码：3735 / 3744
页数：9
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