Changes in the Global Structure of Energy Consumption and the Energy Transition Process

The global energy transition represents a pivotal aspect of the pursuit of sustainable development and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study was to examine the dynamic relationships between global primary energy consumption and the consumption of individual energy sources (nuclear, oil, coal, natural gas, renewables) from 2011 to 2023. To examine both long-run and short-run relationships between variables, advanced econometric methods were employed, including the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Furthermore, an Index of Sustainable Energy Transformation (ISTE) was devised to quantify the advancement of the transition to low-carbon energy sources. The analysis confirms the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships between global primary energy consumption and the consumption of individual energy sources. The analysis revealed that renewable energy consumption exerts a considerable influence on primary energy consumption, both in the short and long term. The ISTE index demonstrated a notable increase over the period of 2011 to 2023, indicative of advancement in the global energy transition. The results confirm the existence of a stable long-term equilibrium between global primary energy consumption and the consumption of individual energy sources. The observed increase in the ISTE index indicates progress towards low-carbon energy sources, which has important implications for energy policy and sustainable development. The results can support policymakers in monitoring the progress of the energy transition and shaping policies to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources.