Real-time risk assessment of distribution systems based on Unscented Kalman Filter

The continuous growth of renewable energy and the load level has posed increasingly severe operational risks to distribution systems. In view of this, this paper combines state estimation with risk assessment, and uses the results of distribution system state estimation based on Unscented Kalman Filter as the input of risk assessment. With the combination, the sampling based on probability distributions in traditional risk assessment methods is no longer needed, thus avoiding the difficulty of updating probability distributions timely according to the latest information in real-time operation. By applying the proposed risk assessment method, the real-time assessment of operational risks in perspectives of bus voltage, branch power, and renewable energy utilization is achieved. Meanwhile, the weight of each risk index is properly determined according to both subjective and objective knowledge by using Analytic Hierarchy Process method and entropy weight method. Case studies show that the proposed method achieves effective assessment of comprehensive risks in the operation of distribution system. Copyright © 2024 Wu, Jiao, Cai, Che and Ling.