RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK TIME SERIES SIMULATION

Aiming at the problems of large amount of calculation and difficult identification of weak links in existing reliability evaluation methods，an integrated energy system reliability evaluation algorithm based on Bayesian network time series simulation is proposed. The Dynamic Delay logical relationship model was established for the thermal energy transmission delay and load thermal inertia in the thermal subsystem network. The inference process of Bayesian network time series simulation was analyzed. Then，based on the logical relationships of the components of the integrated energy system with electric gas thermal coupling，an improved Bayesian network time series simulation inference algorithm was used to evaluate the reliability of the integrated energy system. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of this method and analyze the impact of multi energy complementarity and energy storage devices on system reliability. The results indicate that compared to a single operating subsystem，in an integrated energy system formed by coupling multiple energy flow subsystems，each subsystem undergoes energy conversion through coupling components，resulting in higher overall operational reliability. At the same time，Bayesian networks can be used to diagnose and infer the weak links in the reliability of the integrated energy system，which provides the guidance information for formulating the planning and maintenance plan of the integrated energy system. © 2024 Science Press. All rights reserved.