Quantifying the value of probabilistic forecasts when trading renewable hybrid power parks in day-ahead markets: A Nordic case study
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Lindberg, O.
[1
]
Zhu, R.
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机构:
Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Wind & Energy Syst, Roskilde, DenmarkUppsala Univ, Dept Civil & Ind Engn, Uppsala, Sweden
Zhu, R.
[2
]
Widen, J.
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Uppsala Univ, Dept Civil & Ind Engn, Uppsala, Sweden
Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Wind & Energy Syst, Roskilde, DenmarkUppsala Univ, Dept Civil & Ind Engn, Uppsala, Sweden
Widen, J.
[1
,2
]
机构:
[1] Uppsala Univ, Dept Civil & Ind Engn, Uppsala, Sweden
Probabilistic;
Value;
Short-term;
Wind;
Solar photovoltaic;
Battery energy storage system;
STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION;
WIND;
STORAGE;
GENERATION;
SYSTEMS;
D O I:
10.1016/j.renene.2024.121617
中图分类号:
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号:
08 ;
0830 ;
摘要:
Renewable hybrid power parks (HPPs) that combine wind power, solar photovoltaic (PV) power and storage have emerged as promising electricity generation resources. However, HPPs face operational challenges due to the uncertainty in power production and electricity prices, which is why probabilistic forecasts that capture the uncertainty associated with forecast errors have gained attention. While the research community has proposed several methods to improve the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts, the question on how these forecasts can improve decision-making over deterministic forecasts is rarely quantified. This study assesses the value of probabilistic forecasts and analyze the improvement compared to deterministic forecasts in day-ahead markets. The value is quantified using almost two years of data from an operational HPP in Sweden. Results show that: (i) high grid connection capacities leverage the value of probabilistic models, (ii) a deterministic model is preferable for parks with a ratio of battery energy capacity to installed nominal power of the renewable power park equal to 0.6 MWh/MW, (iii) a probabilistic model allows utilizing the energy storage more effectively by reducing the energy throughput of the battery with 61%-87%, and (iv) a probabilistic model increases the unit profit when the forecast errors of the regulating price are higher than the spot price, (v) a simple probabilistic benchmark model, which is worse in terms of forecast accuracy, increases the unit profit compared to the analyzed deterministic models, and (vi) the more advanced probabilistic model analyzed in this study does not provide a significant improvement over a simple probabilistic benchmark model.
机构:
Jiangnan Univ, Sch Internet Things Engn, Wuxi 214000, Jiangsu, Peoples R ChinaJiangnan Univ, Sch Internet Things Engn, Wuxi 214000, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Tan, Yong Qiang
Shen, Yan Xia
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Jiangnan Univ, Sch Internet Things Engn, Wuxi 214000, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Jiangnan Univ, Sch Internet Things Engn, Wuxi, Jiangsu, Peoples R ChinaJiangnan Univ, Sch Internet Things Engn, Wuxi 214000, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Shen, Yan Xia
Yu, Xin Yan
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机构:
Univ Sydney, Sch Architecture Design & Planning, Darlington, NSW 2008, AustraliaJiangnan Univ, Sch Internet Things Engn, Wuxi 214000, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Yu, Xin Yan
Lu, Xin
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Sydney, Sch Elect & Informat Engn, Darlington, NSW 2008, Australia
Jiangsu Lanchuang Intelligent Technol Ltd, Wuxi 214000, Jiangsu, Peoples R ChinaJiangnan Univ, Sch Internet Things Engn, Wuxi 214000, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
机构:
Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610064, Peoples R China
Sichuan Univ, Inst New Energy & Low Carbon Technol, Chengdu 610064, Peoples R ChinaSichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610064, Peoples R China
Xu, Jiuping
Liu, Liying
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机构:
Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610064, Peoples R ChinaSichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610064, Peoples R China
Liu, Liying
Wang, Fengjuan
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机构:
Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610064, Peoples R ChinaSichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610064, Peoples R China
机构:
Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, PolandWroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, Poland
Suresh, Vishnu
Aksan, Fachrizal
论文数: 0引用数: 0
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机构:
Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, PolandWroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, Poland
Aksan, Fachrizal
Janik, Przemyslaw
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h-index: 0
机构:
Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, PolandWroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, Poland
Janik, Przemyslaw
Sikorski, Tomasz
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, PolandWroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, Poland
Sikorski, Tomasz
Sri Revathi, B.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
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机构:
Vellore Institute of Technology, School of Electrical Engineering, Chennai,600127, IndiaWroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw,50370, Poland