Quantifying the value of probabilistic forecasts when trading renewable hybrid power parks in day-ahead markets: A Nordic case study
被引:0
|
作者:
论文数: 引用数:
h-index:
机构:
Lindberg, O.
[1
]
Zhu, R.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Wind & Energy Syst, Roskilde, DenmarkUppsala Univ, Dept Civil & Ind Engn, Uppsala, Sweden
Zhu, R.
[2
]
Widen, J.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Uppsala Univ, Dept Civil & Ind Engn, Uppsala, Sweden
Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Wind & Energy Syst, Roskilde, DenmarkUppsala Univ, Dept Civil & Ind Engn, Uppsala, Sweden
Widen, J.
[1
,2
]
机构:
[1] Uppsala Univ, Dept Civil & Ind Engn, Uppsala, Sweden
Probabilistic;
Value;
Short-term;
Wind;
Solar photovoltaic;
Battery energy storage system;
STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION;
WIND;
STORAGE;
GENERATION;
SYSTEMS;
D O I:
10.1016/j.renene.2024.121617
中图分类号:
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号:
08 ;
0830 ;
摘要:
Renewable hybrid power parks (HPPs) that combine wind power, solar photovoltaic (PV) power and storage have emerged as promising electricity generation resources. However, HPPs face operational challenges due to the uncertainty in power production and electricity prices, which is why probabilistic forecasts that capture the uncertainty associated with forecast errors have gained attention. While the research community has proposed several methods to improve the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts, the question on how these forecasts can improve decision-making over deterministic forecasts is rarely quantified. This study assesses the value of probabilistic forecasts and analyze the improvement compared to deterministic forecasts in day-ahead markets. The value is quantified using almost two years of data from an operational HPP in Sweden. Results show that: (i) high grid connection capacities leverage the value of probabilistic models, (ii) a deterministic model is preferable for parks with a ratio of battery energy capacity to installed nominal power of the renewable power park equal to 0.6 MWh/MW, (iii) a probabilistic model allows utilizing the energy storage more effectively by reducing the energy throughput of the battery with 61%-87%, and (iv) a probabilistic model increases the unit profit when the forecast errors of the regulating price are higher than the spot price, (v) a simple probabilistic benchmark model, which is worse in terms of forecast accuracy, increases the unit profit compared to the analyzed deterministic models, and (vi) the more advanced probabilistic model analyzed in this study does not provide a significant improvement over a simple probabilistic benchmark model.
机构:
Korea Electrotechnol Res Inst, Energy Platform Res Ctr, Gwangju Si, South KoreaKorea Electrotechnol Res Inst, Energy Platform Res Ctr, Gwangju Si, South Korea
Son, Wanbin
Lee, Ye-Rim
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Korea Electrotechnol Res Inst, Energy Platform Res Ctr, Gwangju Si, South KoreaKorea Electrotechnol Res Inst, Energy Platform Res Ctr, Gwangju Si, South Korea
机构:
North China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R ChinaNorth China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
Dong, Jun
Dou, Xihao
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
North China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R ChinaNorth China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
Dou, Xihao
Bao, Aruhan
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
North China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R ChinaNorth China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
Bao, Aruhan
Zhang, Yaoyu
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
North China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R ChinaNorth China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
Zhang, Yaoyu
Liu, Dongran
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
North China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R ChinaNorth China Elect Power Univ, Dept Econ Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China