A risk-based stochastic energy-water-carbon nexus analytical model to support provincial multi-system synergistic management – A case study of Shanxi, China

被引：1
|
作者：
Zheng, Y.L. [1 ]
Huang, G.H. [1 ,2 ]
Li, Y.P. [1 ]
Han, D.C. [3 ]
Luo, B. [3 ]
Liu, Y.Y. [3 ]
Tang, W.C. [1 ]
机构：
[1] State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, China-Canada Center for Energy, Environment and Ecology Research, UR-BNU, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing
[2] Environmental Systems Engineering Program, University of Regina, Regina, S4S 0A2, SK
[3] Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, 3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, S4S 0A2, SK
来源：
Science of the Total Environment | 2024年 / 957卷
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金; 加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词：
Economic-environment trade-offs; Energy-water-carbon nexus; Low-carbon systems programming; Non-deterministic analysis; Water scarcity relief; Water-carbon synergistic management;
D O I：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177608
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The synergistic management of energy-water‑carbon (EWC) nexus systems is crucial for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Therefore, a non-deterministic interval chance-constrained fractional optimization model for EWC nexus system (ICCF-EWC) management has been developed in this study. This model is capable of handling uncertain parameters represented as stochastic probability distributions and interval values, providing an effective approach to addressing dual-objective optimization problems. Meanwhile, this model is expected to investigate the effect of water scarcity/carbon abatement pressure on the overall system, and potential synergistic abatement effects. A case study of Shanxi Province shows that over the next 30 years, the cumulative installed capacity for clean and renewable energy will exceed 65 %. The dominance of coal-fired electricity will be considerably diminished, with wind power overtaking coal/gas-fired power by around 30 %. Moreover, water scarcity and carbon mitigation pressure would promote the development of electricity conversion mode to clean energy rather than the large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology upgradation of thermal power. The results can help support low-carbon transition of power systems at a province-level in China and financial incentives related policy making to advance water conservation and carbon emission mitigation. The developed model can also be adapted to other energy resource-dependent regional power systems. © 2024 Elsevier B.V.
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