Evaluation of mean and variance approximations in three point estimation of task completion times using the beta and the Kumaraswamy distribution

被引：0

作者：

Bochard P.O. ^{[1
]}

Schwarz T. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Área de Mecatrónica, Universidad Tecnológica Del Uruguay, Montevideo

[2] Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI

来源：

International Journal of Information Technology and Management | 2019年 / 18卷 / 04期

关键词：

Beta distribution; Expert judgement; Kumaraswamy distribution; Mean and variance approximations; PERT; Project management; Task completion times; Three-point estimations;

D O I：

10.1504/ijitm.2019.10024390

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Estimation of task and project completion times within IT projects remains one of the most error-prone, but also most critical duties of an IT project manager. Various three-point methods of PERT have been evaluated by assuming that the true distribution is a beta-distribution. We evaluate PERT methods by comparing additionally with the Kumaraswamy distribution, which has an equal claim to be the true a-priori distribution for project completion times. We use skew and kurtosis in order to define test sets instead of simply choosing a range of shape parameters. We validate various approximations proposed in the literature and show that valid approximations are possible. Copyright 2019 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

引用

页码：389 / 406

页数：17