Research on the early warning model of environmental desertification based on grid scale

Based on the causes of environmental desertification in the three aspects of climate, surface and human culture, the early-warning index system of desertification was constructed, and the early-warning model was established. Arc GIS was used to quantify and rasterize the data of each factor. In the past 60 years, the area of desertification increased from 53,000 km 2 to 114,000 km 2, bringing great harm to the ecological environment and social economy. The early warning model was used to realize the desertification degree distribution on the raster scale (30 m 30 m), in the three periods, in the research area. The results of the first two periods and the third period were respectively used for parameter correction and verification. On this basis, the development trend of desertification in the study area in 2021, under the condition of intermittent water transfer and no water transfer, is predicted. The simulation accuracy of desertification degree distribution in the study area is over 90% through parameter correction and early warning model, which has good applicability. © 2019 Technoscience Publications. All rights reserved.