Satellite-Based Detection of Algal Blooms in Large Alpine Lake Sevan: Can Satellite Data Overcome the Unavoidable Limitations in Field Observations?

Lake Sevan in Armenia is a unique, large, alpine lake given its surface, volume, and geographic location. The lake suffered from progressing eutrophication and, since 2018, massive cyanobacterial blooms repeatedly occurred. Although the lake is comparatively intensely monitored, the feasibility to reliably detect the algal bloom events appeared to be limited by the established in situ monitoring, mostly because algal bloom dynamics are far more dynamic than the realized monitoring frequency of monthly samplings. This mismatch of monitoring frequency and ecosystem dynamics is a notorious problem in lakes, where plankton dynamics often work at relatively short time scales. Satellite-based monitoring with higher overpass frequency, e.g., by Sentinel-3 OLCI with its daily overcasts, are expected to fill this gap. The goal of our study was therefore the establishment of a fast detection of algal blooms in Lake Sevan that operates at the time scale of days instead of months. We found that algal bloom detection in Lake Sevan failed, however, when it was only based on chlorophyll due to complications with optical water properties and atmospheric corrections. Instead, we obtained good results when true-color RGB images were analyzed or a specifically designed satellite-based HAB indicator was applied. These methods provide reliable and very fast bloom detection at a scale of days. At the same time, our results indicated that there are still considerable limitations for the use of remote sensing when it comes to a fully quantitative assessment of algal dynamics in Lake Sevan. The observations made so far indicate that algal blooms are a regular feature in Lake Sevan and occur almost always when water temperatures surpass approximately 20 degrees C. Our satellite-based method effectively allowed for bloom detection at short time scales and identified blooms over several years where classical sampling failed to do so, simply because of the unfortunate timing of sampling dates and blooming phases. The extension of classical in situ sampling by satellite-based methods is therefore a step towards a more reliable, faster, and more cost-effective detection of algal blooms in this valuable lake.