Short-term traffic breakdown prediction using a hidden Markov model

被引：0

作者：

Zhou H. ^{[1
]}

Hu J. ^{[1
]}

Zhang Y. ^{[1
]}

Shen Y. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing

来源：

Qinghua Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Tsinghua University | 2016年 / 56卷 / 12期

关键词：

Hidden Markov model; PeMS; Traffic breakdown; Viterbi algorithm;

D O I：

10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2016.25.043

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Traffic breakdown reduces road capacity as one of the main factors causing congestion on urban expressways. Accurate short-term traffic breakdown predictions on urban expressways are becoming more and more important because of their vital role in traffic management and control. Traffic flow data was obtained from the Caltrans performance measurement system (PeMS) with traffic breakdown states classified by a lane-based method. A Hidden Markov model (HMM) is then established with the traffic breakdown state as the hidden state and the road occupancy as the observed state with the Viterbi algorithm to solve the problem. The traffic breakdowns were successfully predicted to show that the HHM accurately predicts short-term traffic breakdowns. © 2016, Tsinghua University Press. All right reserved.

引用

页码：1333 / 1340

页数：7

共 15 条

[1]

Dong J., Mahmassani H.S., Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Applimtion to predicting travel time reliability, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 13, 4, pp. 1803-1809, (2012)

[2]

Chen X., Modeling Traffic Flow Dynamic and Stochastic Evolutions, (2012)

[3]

Treiber M., Hennecke A., Helbing D., Congested traffic states in empirical observations and microscopic simulations, Physical Review E, 62, 2, pp. 1805-1824, (2009)

[4]

Sugiyama Y., Fukui M., Kikuchi M., Et al., Traffic jams without bottlenecks-Experimental evidence for the physical mechanism of the formation of a jam, New Journal of Physics, 10, 3, (2008)

[5]

Daniel J.G., Glaister S., Road traffic demand elasticity estimates: A review, Transport Reviews, 24, 3, pp. 261-274, (2004)

[6]

Lee H.K., Barlovic R., Schreckenberg M., Et al., Mechanical restriction versus human overreaction triggering congested traffic states, Physical Review Letters, 92, 23, (2004)

[7]

Okamura H., Watanabe S., Watanabe T., An empirical study on the capacity of bottlenecks on the basic suburban expressway sections in Japan, Transportation Research Circular, E-C018, pp. 120-129, (2000)

[8]

Murashige Y., Countermeasure strategies against traffic congestion on motorways in Japan, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 16, pp. 110-119, (2011)

[9]

Lorenz M.R., Elefteriadou L., A probabilistic approach to defining freeway capacity and breakdown, Transportation Research Circular, E-C018, pp. 84-95, (2000)

[10]

Evans J., Elefteriadou L., Gautam N., Probability of breakdown at freeway merges using Markov chains, Transportation Research Part B, 35, 3, pp. 237-254, (2001)

← 1 2 →