Novel interval method for reliability evaluation of large scale distribution system

Interval reliability models of Markov systems and an interval-analysis-based reliability evaluation method for large-scale distribution systems are presented. Deconvolution formulas of interval arithmetic are deduced and applied in order to obtain sharp bounds of the results of reliability studies. This paper advances detailed description of interval reliability evaluation algorithm under interval uncertainty and ambiguity of component reliability parameters and load data. A software package DSIR2002 (interval analysis based distribution system reliability evaluation software) has been developed. Extensive investigation on IEEE RBTS test system, a 50-bus typical distribution system and a 573-bus distribution system have shown that the developed software is valid and effective, capable of dealing with single variation as well as simultaneous variations of parameters. The interval reliability evaluation approach also serves as a fast and easy-to-use sensitivity analysis tool.