A probabilistic method for evaluating slope failure

被引：0

作者：

Lee, Ya-Fen ^{[1
]}

Lee, Der-Her ^{[2
]}

Chi, Yun-Yao ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Leisure and Recreation Management, Toko University, Chiayi, Taiwan 61363, R.O.C., Taiwan

[2] Department of Civil Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan 70101, R.O.C., Taiwan

[3] Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University, Tainan, Taiwan 71101, R.O.C., Taiwan

来源：

Journal of the Chinese Institute of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering | 2009年 / 21卷 / 01期

关键词：

Slope stability - Groundwater - Reliability - Safety factor;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

In this paper, the failure probability of slope of colluviums and decomposed rock stratum is discussed. Firstly, a probabilistic method for evaluating slope failure is developed based on the concept of reliability index. The proposed method is constructed by EXCEL Solver Tools and is verified by case studies of the literatures. The characteristics of the critical slip surface (CSS) corresponding to minimum safety factor, and most possibility slip surface (MPSS) corresponding to minimum reliability index, are also discussed. Finally, the practical case of slope failure in Woo-wan-chai area, Mt. Ali Road is evaluated by the proposed method. The results show that (1) the proposed method by EXCEL Solver Tools is accurate and feasible; (2) in a safe slope, the MPSS differs from the CSS distinctly, and the MPSS is more shallower then the CSS. The failure probability and the MPSS are both affected by the coefficient of variation of parameters (COV) and the correlation between parameters (p). Nevertheless, the MPSS is same as the CSS in an unsafe slope, and only the failure probability is affected by the COV and p; (3) in Woo-wan-chai practical case, the value of the probability is equal to 0.324, 0.567 and 0.659 under low, medium and high groundwater condition, respectively. It is indicted that the failure of slope is significantly influenced by groundwater level.

引用

页码：91 / 103