A Novel Method for Aging Prediction of Railway Catenary Based on Improved Kalman Filter

The aging prediction of railway catenary is of profound significance for ensuring the regular operation of electrified trains. However, in real-world scenarios, accurate predictions are challenging due to various interferences. This paper addresses this challenge by proposing a novel method for predicting the aging of railway catenary based on an improved Kalman filter (KF). The proposed method focuses on modifying the priori state estimate covariance and measurement error covariance of the KF to enhance accuracy in complex environments. By comparing the optimal displacement value with the theoretically calculated value based on the thermal expansion effect of metals, it becomes possible to ascertain the aging status of the catenary. To improve prediction accuracy, a railway catenary aging prediction model is constructed by integrating the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy neural network (FNN) and KF. In this model, an adaptive training method is introduced, allowing the FNN to use fewer fuzzy rules. The inputs of the model include time, temperature, and historical displacement, while the output is the predicted displacement. Furthermore, the KF is enhanced by modifying its prior state estimate covariance and measurement error covariance. These modifications contribute to more accurate predictions. Lastly, a low-power experimental platform based on FPGA is implemented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The test results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the compared method, showcasing its superior performance. © 2024 Tech Science Press. All rights reserved.