Dependability assessment of railway time synchronization network based on fuzzy bayesian network

被引：0

作者：

Zhang, You-Peng ^{[1
]}

Wang, Feng ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Shan ^{[1
]}

Lan, Li ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] School of Automatic & Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou

来源：

Tiedao Xuebao/Journal of the China Railway Society | 2015年 / 37卷 / 05期

关键词：

Bayesian network; Fuzzy set; Railway time synchronization network; Reliability evaluation;

D O I：

10.3969/j.issn.1001-8361.2015.05.010

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Chinese railway time synchronization network is a repairable safety-critical system that features complex structure and key redundancy equipment, where the phenomenon of common cause failure is prevalent. In order to quantify the safety risk of the railway time synchronization network and identify the system weaknesses, based on the fuzzy set theory, the fuzzy semantics and rank is applied to quantify the conditional probability of basic events. Further, the reliability modeling of railway time synchronization network is established using Bayesian network, and reliability is assessed. The system weaknesses can be identified more easily and more practically by calculating the unit unavailability under the condition of system fault. The results show that the fuzzy Bayesian network can predict the reliability of the railway time synchronization network. Analysis results would tend to be optimistic without consideration of the common cause failures. The risk probability concluded from the calculation reflects current safety situation of the network. The analysis of importance shows that failure of the fiber-optic and first layer equipment can result in the key events of the railway time synchronization network. Therefore, failure rate of the system can be effectively reduced by strengthening maintenance check of the equipment. ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved.

引用

页码：57 / 63

页数：6

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