Study on prediction of energy security in beijing based on scenario analysis

被引：0

作者：

Liu, Yuan-Xin ^{[1
]}

Feng, Tian-Tian ^{[1
]}

Yang, Yi-Sheng ^{[1
]}

Yuan, Jian-Ping ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power Univ

来源：

Journal of Convergence Information Technology | 2012年 / 7卷 / 23期

关键词：

Energy security; Prediction; Scenario analysis;

D O I：

10.4156/jcit.vol7.issue23.50

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

As capital of China, the energy consumption of Beijing ranks second, but energy resources are highly dependent on other cities. With the development of low carbon economics, energy shortage and environmental problems increasingly hit the energy security in Beijing. This article selects the relevant data from 1995 to 2009 in Beijing as samples, proceeds a comprehensive assessment of energy security from four dimensions such as energy, economic, society and environment, then predicts the energy security of 2011-2015, and compares the results of three policy scenarios in Beijing. The conclusion is as follows: In 1995-2009, Beijing's energy security had fallen. Under the policy of low carbon, Beijing's energy security in 2011-2015is below the danger cordon; Increasing energy reserves, improving energy efficiency, perfecting energy consumption structure and strictly implement the energy-saving and emission-reduction policy would have an important effect on the improvement of energy security.

引用

页码：425 / 434

页数：9

共 12 条

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