Bayesian updating of failure probability of beam-to-column connections of steel frames in consideration of correlation of errors in estimating safety margin

This paper is an extension of the previous work that proposed formulation for applying Bayesian updating for post-earthquake inspection of steel frames in which beam-to-column connections are potentially fractured. A new model is proposed so that it can take into consideration the correlation of errors in estimating the safety margin. Its feature is summarized as: (1) beam-to-column connections are configured into some groups, (2) the average error is divided into that related to the entire building and that peculiar to each group, and (3) Bayesian updating is applied only for that with the whole building and that with the group to which the inspected beam-to-column connection belongs. In addition of the formulation, illustrative examples show that by applying the proposed model, priority of connection in the inspection order can alter as the results of prior inspection and that the same conclusion on the probability of occurrence of hidden failure can be lead with a fewer number of inspection locations. © 2015, Architectural Institute of Japan. All rights reserved.