Ionospheric total electron content prediction based on ARMA model

被引：0

作者：

Department of Physics, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China ^{[1
]}

不详 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Physics, Dalian Maritime University

[2] College of Information Science and Technology, Dalian Maritime University

来源：

Zhang, S. (sfzhang@dlmu.edu.cn) | 1600年 / Editorial Board of Journal of Basic Science and卷 / 21期

关键词：

ARMA model; Ionosphere; Prediction of ionosphere; Total electron content;

D O I：

10.3969/j.issn.1005-0930.2013.05.002

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere is an important factor influencing the accuracy of satellite navigation. TEC prediction for five days was carried out by means of the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model of time series theory on the basis of the TEC data from five International GPS Service (IGS) tracking stations in China in 2006 and 2007. The results show that ARMA model can accurately simulate the TEC data in ionospheric grids within five days. The absolute errors of ARMA model prediction at the five IGS stations for 24h prediction are less than 1.0TECU. The relative accuracy for 36h prediction mostly remains over 90%. For five-day prediction, the relative accuracy of TEC prediction obtained by our method can still reach above 90%. Moreover, the absolute errors for 93.3% of the prediction data are less than 2.0TECU.

引用

页码：814 / 822

页数：8

共 21 条

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