Application of the LUR Model in the Prediction of Spatial Distributions of Soil Heavy Metals

Using the Jintan District of Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province as an example, the LUR model was used to study the spatial distribution of heavy metals and to simulate the spatial distribution of heavy metals in the study area. Compared with the traditional LUR model and the ordinary Kriging interpolation model, the following conclusions were obtained. ① The soil heavy metal content in the study area was highly and significantly correlated with land factors, with the main factor of land use and influencing factors of heavy metals in the soil environment (P<0.01). In terms of influencing factors, the soil Cu and Zn contents were significantly correlated with the area related to traffic in a 2 000 m buffer area and 2 000 m buffer zone, respectively. The soil Cr, Cu, and Zn contents were significantly correlated with OM, Corg, TC, and TN (P<0.01). ② The R2 of the LUR-S models of the spatial distribution of the heavy metals, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Zn, in the study area were improved by 0.041, 0.406, 0.102, and 0.501, respectively, compared with the traditional LUR model. The accuracy test R2 values were improved by 0.147 7, 0.011 6, 0.231 0, and 0.081, respectively; and the RMSE was reduced by 2.413, 0.631, 1.112, and 2.138, respectively. It was shown that the LUR-S model, which considered the source-sink relationship, had a higher accuracy than the traditional LUR model and ordinary Kriging interpolation model. ③ The LUR-S model was more suitable for the prediction of the spatial distribution of heavy metals with lower pollution and smaller variations, while results for the prediction of the heavy metals with higher pollution and larger variations were worse. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.