Resilience-based supply assurance of natural gas pipeline networks and its research prospects

Ensuring secure supply of natural gas, which is a complex systemic problem based on the integration of resources, pipeline networks and demands, is critical for maintaining economic development and society stability. Many works have been done in different countries for the reliability analysis of natural gas pipeline networks. However, the reliability assessment method, based on the probabilistic security concept, may suffer from the inherent deficits of underestimating the extreme events with low possibilities but high consequences. This is especially true for large and complex systems. Based on the findings and applications in the areas of power grids, supply chains and transportation systems, this paper proposes the concept of resilience-based supply assurance of natural gas pipeline network, by supplementing the reliability analysis with the concepts of vulnerability and restorability. Then, relevant researches in complex systems, e.g., natural gas pipeline networks and electric power grids, are summarized from the perspectives of status, problem and development. Besides, boosted by the novel technologies, such as Big Data and AI, the resilience-based assurance theory for natural gas supply will become an important theoretical foundation of smart technology for pipeline networks, under the revolution towards intelligentization and marketization. © 2020, Editorial Office of ACTA PETROLEI SINICA. All right reserved.