The software design of an uncertainty analysis model for pore pressure prediction with monte carlo simulation method

The general pore pressure proffles prediction are normally composed of single points that computed from deterministic input parameters obtained from logging or seismic information with depth, so drilling engineers can't make risk decisions. Therefore, to better analyzing risk assessment and eliminating the undesirable inuences from deterministic parameters as much as possible, the Monte Carlo simulation was presented to refine input parameters and the integration of Eaton's classical pore pressure model was established. Consequently, the output of updated pore pressure prediction turns into a dynamic interval in accordance with different possibility distribution assumptions. To valid the new risk-based model, a programmed software based on this methodology was carried out in three wells at high pore pressure region in Sichuan basin, China and each input parametric sensitivity analysis were examined. The high feasibility can assist oil operator to make suitable risk decisions from limited information and assess reasonable drilling costs. © 2014 Binary Information Press.