Modeling and application of power grid dispatching operation risk consequences

The dispatching operation of modern power grid has the characteristics of complexity and uncertainty, which poses a severe challenge to the traditional dispatching mode based on experience. By introducing risk consequences calculation into large-scale power grid dispatching operation, the concept of operation state and operation developing state is proposed for each of the operating steps decomposed from the dispatching order, and the corresponding calculation model each for the operation state and operation developing state is built. In terms of assessment indices, overload, overload power of control section, voltage violation and loss of load are used as four indices to describe power grid dispatching operation risk. Then normalization and commensurability are used to evaluate the risk consequences of each operation step and of the whole dispatching order. Finally, the proposed model is used to assess operation risk of Guangdong power grid. It is proved that the proposed model is effective and feasible for large-scale power grids. During the risk consequence assessment, high-risk operation steps of the dispatching order can be found out, which provides an identification method to discover potential risk right from the formulation of the dispatching order at the beginning of power grid dispatching. © 2016 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press.