Prediction model of the transmission line lightning strike probability base on the generalized pareto distribution

被引：0

作者：

机构：

[1] Wuhan University, Guang Xi Electrical Power Research Institute

[2] Key Laboratory of High Voltage Engineering and Electrical New Technology, Chongqing University

来源：

Shi-Yang, Z. | 1600年 / Asian Network for Scientific Information卷 / 12期

关键词：

Generalized pareto distribution; Ground lightning density; Lightning probability prediction; Overhead transmission line;

D O I：

10.3923/itj.2013.5372.5376

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

In recent years, the lightning disasters occur frequently and the uncertainty of lightning brought more and more challenges to transmission line lightning protection and disaster mitigation work.Based on the characteristics of the lightning obey the extreme value distribution, In this study, use an overhead transmission line lightning strike probability prediction method base on the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). According to the statistics in month, Using the method of average overrun function and probability weighted moment estimation method of GPD estimate the parameters of the model.Establishing regional GPD model of ground lightning density proposed the overhead transmission line lightning probability prediction method in extreme weather conditions.The analysis results base on the compare with the actual lightning trip-out rate show that: the proposed method can be well fitted lightning distribution, evaluation level of risk of transmission lines, provide support for transmission line lightning protection and disaster mitigation. © 2013 Asian Network for Scientific Information.

引用

页码：5372 / 5376

页数：4

共 13 条

[1]

Armstrong H.R., Whitehead E.R., Field and analytical studies of transmission line shielding, Trans. Power Apparatus Syst, 87, pp. 270-281, (1968)

[2]

Bali T.G., An extreme value approach to estimating volatility and value at risk, J. Busi, 76, pp. 83-108, (2003)

[3]

Cebrian A.C., Denuit M., Lambert P., Generalized pareto fit to the society of actuaries large claims database, North Am. Actuarial J, 20, pp. 18-36, (2003)

[4]

Du Y., Chen S.M., John B., Experimental and numerical evaluation of surge current distribution in building during a direct lightning stroke, Trans. Hongkong Instil Eng, 23, pp. 43-49, (2001)

[5]

Efron B., Tibshirani R., Bootstrap methods for standard errors confidence intervals and other measures of statistical accuracy, Stat. Sci, 1, pp. 54-75, (1986)

[6]

Embrechts P., Resnick S., Extreme value theory as a risk management tool, North Am. Actuarial J, 3, pp. 30-41, (1999)

[7]

Hosking J.R.M., Wallis J.R., Parameter and quantile estimation for the generalized pareto distribution, Technometrics, 29, pp. 339-349, (1987)

[8]

Hosking J.R.M., Wallis J.R., Wood E.F., Estimation of the generalized extreme-value distribution by the method of probability-weighted moments, Technometrics, 3, pp. 251-261, (1985)

[9]

McDermott T.E., Longo V.J., Advanced computational methods in lightning performance the epri lightning protection design workstation, Proceedings of the Power Engineering Society, Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting, 33, pp. 17-21, (2000)

[10]

Peter F.R., Generalized probability weighted moments: Application to the generalized pareto distribution, Water Resour. Res, 37, pp. 1745-1751, (2001)

← 1 2 →