Reliability analysis and error estimation of in-situ stress measurement based on Monte Carlo method

In-situ stress measurement plays an important role in safe and efficient coal mining. However, seldom do the previous researches focus on reliability degree, influencing factors and error analysis of the stress measurement. By means of Monte Carlo method and numerical simulation, the model of the in-situ stress measurement by hollow inclusion strain gauge method was established. Moreover, taking experimental data from four mines of Xinji Energy Co., Ltd for instance, the author has analyzed the distribution pattern of physical-mechanical parameters and characteristic parameters of the rock mass. The sensitive factors which will influence measurement results and their influencing rules have also been studied. The findings are as follows: The Poisson ratio, elastic modulus and the diameter of the tested hole are key influencing factors for the stress magnitude, while the direction of the tested hole, the Poisson ratio and the internal friction angle are the important influencing factors for the stress azimuth. The relative error and azimuth declination formula of the maximum principal stress were obtained based on the multiple regression fitting method, which will provide an important reference for the reliability analysis of the stress measurement by the hollow inclusion strain gauge method and other relevant researches. © 2016, Editorial Board of Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering. All right reserved.