The heterogeneity of inflation expectation: An empirical analysis based on optimal information acquisition

被引：2

作者：

Dai W. ^{[1
,2
]}

Shi Z. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Huangshi, 435003, Hubei

[2] School of Economics and Management, Hubei Polytechnic University, Huangshi, 435003, Hubei

来源：

Journal of Interdisciplinary Mathematics | 2017年 / 20卷 / 02期

关键词：

Heterogeneity; Inflation expectation; Information acquisition;

D O I：

10.1080/09720502.2016.1197576

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

This paper firstly estimates the inflation expectation of households by improved probability method and then estimates the inflation expectation of experts by VAR(2) Model. Based on these two estimations, we find that expert expectation has a higher precision but it does not act in a rational way as household expectation acts. There is a bi-directional Granger Causality link between households’ expectation and actual inflation. But the expert expectation is only the Granger reason of actual inflation. There is an obvious feedback mechanism between the inflation of household and expert. This heterogeneity of inflation may be the result of optimal information acquisition during the formation of private sector’s expectation. © 2017 Taru Publications.

引用

页码：555 / 579

页数：24

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