Future projection of wind energy resources over China's offshore areas under different climate change scenarios

Based on the coupled model inter-comparison project phase six (CMIP6) simulation results, future projection of wind energy resources over China's offshore areas under different climate change scenarios is carried out in this article. The results showd that under the two typical scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585, sea surface wind speed ( SSWS ) over most of the north and central South China Sea exhibits increasing trend for the years of 2015-2010, and SSWS over most of the East China Sea shows decreasing trend, whereas SSWS over the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea both changes relatively weakly; the direction of SSWS changes over the north and central South China Sea and the East China Sea under the SSP585 scenario is similar to these under the SSP245 scenario, with magnitudes and significances of SSWS trends enhanced. Under the SSP585 scenario, the maximum relative changes of wind power density and capacity factor over the north and central of South China Sea are about 8% and 6% respectively for 21th Century middle term (2041-2060) compared with historical climate period (1990-2010), and the maximum relative changes of these parameters over the East China Sea are about -12% and -9% respectively, whereas their changes within 100 km near-shore areas of mainland China are within ±5%. © 2022, Solar Energy Periodical Office Co., Ltd. All right reserved.