A multi-objective robust programming model for agricultural water management with uncertain weights

被引：0
|
作者：
Tan Q. [1 ]
Gou T. [1 ]
Zhang T. [1 ]
Li R. [2 ]
Zhang S. [1 ]
机构：
[1] College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing
[2] State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu
来源：
Shuili Xuebao/Journal of Hydraulic Engineering | 2020年 / 51卷 / 01期
关键词：
Agricultural water management; Multi-objective programming; Planting patterns; Robustness; Uncertain weights;
D O I：
10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20190449
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
It is of great significance to adjust crop planting patterns for efficient allocation of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas. Agricultural water management is a complex problem that needs to deal with the tradeoffs among multiple objectives, and objectives weights will greatly influence the decision-making process. Due to the subjective opinions from different decision makers, weights are uncertain in nature. However, weights were often simplified as fixed values in previous studies, which neglected the uncertain feature of weights. Thus, a multi-objective robust programming model for agricultural water management with uncertain weights (MRPWU) was developed in this study. This proposed method could deal with the uncertainties existing in weights, manipulate the violation-risks of the system, and provide robust solutions for agricultural water management. It could also provide solutions with quantified benefits and risks, helping decision makers to determine the optimal solutions. The objectives were to maximize the economic benefits of crop planting and the ecological benefits of carbon absorption. A set of constraints including water resources availabilities and production demands were considered. Minqin County in northwestern China was selected as the study area, where the contradiction between water supply and demand was very prominent. The results show that, with increased protection level, ecological benefit would increase, while economic and comprehensive benefits, as well as system risks would decrease. Compared with results obtained from a multi-objective programming model with deterministic weights, MRPWU could improve the system's ability against weight uncertainty and violation risk, with a 3.7% reduction of synergy benefits. Compared with the benchmark practices in the base year of 2017, the optimal solutions of MRPWU model could reduce the total planting area by 1.6%, save the irrigation water by 3.9% and increase ecological benefit by 1.6%. © 2020, China Water Power Press. All right reserved.
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页码：56 / 68
页数：12
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