Analysis of Spread Dynamics of Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV

被引：0

作者：

Liang K.-H. ^{[1
]}

Zhang W.-F. ^{[2
]}

Zhang X.-H. ^{[2
]}

Wu Z.-K. ^{[2
]}

Liu Q. ^{[2
]}

Zhang C.-L. ^{[2
]}

Li Z.-L. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] College of Computational Science, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou

[2] College of Automation, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou

[3] College of Economic and Trade, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou

来源：

Dianzi Keji Daxue Xuebao/Journal of the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China | 2020年 / 49卷 / 03期

关键词：

Coronavirus; COVID; -; 19; Dynamics; MERS; SARS;

D O I：

10.12178/1001-0548.6_2020067

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread dynamics of COVID-19, SARS and MERS. Based on the growth rate and infection inhibition constant of infectious diseases, the propagation growth model of infectious diseases is established, and then the parameters of the propagation growth model of three coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, are obtained by nonlinear fitting. The analysis shows that the growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 is about twice that of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the doubling period of SARS-CoV-2 is two to three days. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei province is two orders of magnitude lower than that in other areas, which is consistent with the situation in Hubei. © 2020, Editorial Board of Journal of the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China. All right reserved.

引用

页码：349 / 356

页数：7

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