Dynamic change and prediction of ecological footprint of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

被引：0
|
作者：
Bin L. [1 ]
Jiang R. [1 ]
Cao Y. [2 ]
Xu K. [3 ]
Han Z. [3 ]
机构：
[1] School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin
[2] Academy of Eco-civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin
[3] State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin
来源：
Water Resources Protection | 2023年 / 39卷 / 05期
关键词：
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; sustainable utilization of water resources; water resources ecological carrying capacity; water resources ecological footprint;
D O I：
10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2023.05.005
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The water resources ecological footprint model, the water resources ecological carrying capacity model and the evaluation indicators for sustainable utilization of water resources were used to analyze the temporal and spatial trend of the water resources ecological footprint in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2010 to 2021. And a long short-term memory time series neural network model was used to predict the trend of water resource ecological footprint from 2022 to 2026. The results show that from 2010 to 2021, the ecological footprint of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with Beijing’s production water ecological footprint decreasing year by year and lower than that of domestic water ecological footprint. Tianjin and Hebei have the largest proportion of production water ecological footprint. The ecological footprint of ecological environment water use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows a fluctuating upward trend. Since 2010, the water resources ecological footprint in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been shifting towards core cities in the central region. The water resources ecological carrying capacity in each district and city is far lower than the water resources ecological footprint, showing an ecological deficit state. Among them, Tangshan City, Xinji City, Xiong’an New Area, and Hengshui City have significant ecological deficits, exceeding 0.5 hm2 per person, and there is a serious imbalance between water supply and demand. The water resources ecological footprint in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with a GDP of 10 000 yuan shows an overall downward trend, with the absolute value of Hebei far higher than that of Beijing and Tianjin, indicating a significant potential for water conservation. The prediction results of the water resources ecological footprint show that the water resources ecological footprint in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is showing a slow upward trend from 2022 to 2026, and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will further intensify. © 2023, Editorial Board of Water Resources Protection. All rights reserved.
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页码：32 / 38and57
页数：3825
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