Attribution analysis of runoff change in the Beidasha River Basin

被引：0

作者：

He Y. ^{[1
,2
]}

Tang L. ^{[1
,2
]}

Yang D. ^{[1
,2
]}

Lei H. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing

[2] State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing

来源：

Water Resources Protection | 2022年 / 38卷 / 04期

关键词：

ABCD model; attribution analysis; climate seasonality; elastic coefficient method; runoff change; the Beidasha River Basin;

D O I：

10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2022.04.014

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Based on the ABCD model, this study proposed an analysis framework to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change, and carried out an attribution analysis in the Beidasha River Basin on different time scales with this framework and the elastic coefficient method. The results show that, on an annual scale, the contributions of climate change to runoff increase from the base period (from 1980 to 1990) to the disturbed period (from 2006 to 2018) are 43. 0 mm and 32. 0 mm by the ABCD model and the elastic coefficient method, respectively, and the impact of human activities on runoff is comparable to that of climate change. The elastic coefficient method does not consider the intra-annual variation of meteorological forcings, which may underestimate the impact of climate change. On a monthly scale, climate change increases the runoff by 4. 4 to 18. 1. mm and 1. 3 to 2. 2. mm during flood season and nonflood season, respectively, which is dominant in summer and autumn; human activities increase runoff by 11. 3 mm in September and decrease runoff by 1. 9 to 10. 1. mm in other months, which are dominant in spring and winter. © 2022, Editorial Board of Water Resources Protection. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：95 / 101

页数：6

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