Vulnerability of mangrove habitats driven by sea level rise and land use

In order to explore the potential changes of mangrove habitats due to sea level rise (SLR) and land use, Leizhou Peninsula, which has the most concentrated mangrove distribution in China, was taken as the study area. A vulnerability index for mangrove habitats was proposed based on the SLAMM model and landscape ecological model. Four SLR-land use combination scenarios (SLR4.5- Developed, SLR4.5-Natural, SLR8.5-Developed, and SLR8.5-Natural) were set up in this study to predict the habitats changes and vulnerability habitats of mangrove in Leizhou Peninsula by 2050, and several management strategies to cope with environmental changes were proposed. The results indicated that: ①The superposition of the double pressure of SLR and land use would cause significant degradation of mangrove habitats, and the predicted habitat area would be reduced by 16.59% to 25.61%, with the reduction locations concentrated along the coast of Tieshan Bay, Anpu Bay, Zhanjiang Bay, Leizhou Bay and Liusha Bay. ②Under the natural scenarios, although still coping with the pressure of SLR, the area of potential mangrove habitats could be increased by 44.66% to 67.74%. The increased mangrove areas were concentrated along the coastal nearshore and rivers banks, but the additional habitats faced a high degree of fragmentation. ③The trend of mangrove migration to present reserves was showed in all scenarios, and the area of mangrove habitats in reserves decreased from 5949.8 to 4732.1~5192.9hm2.④The high vulnerability areas were mainly located on the nearshore of Leizhou Bay, Zhanjiang Bay, Liusha Bay, etc. Under the natural scenarios, the vulnerability of additional mangrove habitats was generally high. In the future, paying attention to high-vulnerability areas and making timely dynamic adjustments to land use policies and reserve management strategies, are conducive to enhancing the resilience of mangrove habitats to cope with environmental changes such as SLR and promoting sustainable development of the region. © 2023 Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences. All rights reserved.