Correlation-based Probabilistic Multi-energy Flow Calculation of Regional Integrated Energy System with Combined Electricity and Natural Gas

被引：0
|
作者：
Li C. [1 ]
Zhang S. [1 ]
Cheng H. [1 ]
Song Y. [2 ]
Yuan K. [2 ]
Lyu J. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai
[2] State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing
来源：
Zhang, Shenxi (willzsx@sjtu.edu.cn) | 1600年 / Automation of Electric Power Systems Press卷 / 44期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Combined electricity and natural gas system; Correlation; Cumulant method; Probabilistic multi-energy flow; Regional integrated energy system;
D O I：
10.7500/AEPS20191121006
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The large-scale integration of renewable energy resources increases the uncertainty in regional integrated energy systems (RIES) with combined electricity and natural gas. With the increase of coupling degree between power systems and natural gas systems, the impact of load fluctuation of the coupling part on the energy flow of RIES becomes more and more significant. First, a steady state multi-energy flow model is established based on the energy hub model. On this basis, considering the volatility of power load, natural gas load, coupling part load, and output of renewable energy sources and correlation between power load and natural gas load, a computation method of the state variables in RIES is proposed. Second, Cornish-Fisher expansion is used to fit the probability distribution of the state variables. Case studies are implemented in the combined modified IEEE 33-bus and natural-gas 11-bus system, and the proposed method is proven to be fast, effective and accurate. At the same time, the impact of different coupling part load fluctuation degrees and correlation levels between power load and natural gas load on multi-energy flow of RIES is analyzed. © 2020 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press.
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页码：42 / 49
页数：7
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