The impact of population ageing on real estate price: An empirical study in China

被引：0
|
作者：
Mou X. [1 ]
Li X. [1 ,2 ]
Dong J. [1 ,2 ]
Dong Z. [1 ]
Zhu L. [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
[2] Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
来源：
Xitong Gongcheng Lilun yu Shijian/System Engineering Theory and Practice | 2019年 / 39卷 / 04期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Population ageing; Real estate price; Threshold panel regression;
D O I：
10.12011/1000-6788-2018-1996-13
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
As China gradually stepping into the ageing society, the impact of population ageing on the real estate market has become increasingly prominent. This paper constructed a theoretical mechanism of the impact of population ageing on the real estate price and accordingly identify key channels through which ageing affects real estate price. Then using the panel models and the threshold panel models, an empirical study is made to verify the proposed hypothesis based on the 31 provinces and cities' data in China. The empirical results show that population ageing has a negative impact on real estate price. Meanwhile population ageing has negative moderating effects in the positive impact of housing expectation, population increase, urbanization and per capita disposable income on the real estate price. Furthermore, the economic development and urbanization will weaken the negative impact of population ageing on real estate price. Whether the negative impact of population ageing outperforms the positive effects of other factors depends on the level of economic development and urbanization, as well as how much the Chinese households care about houses. © 2019, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.
引用
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页码：1018 / 1030
页数：12
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