Flexibility Aggregation and Optimal Dispatching of Integrated Electricity-Heat Energy System Based on Probabilistic Forecasting

被引：0
|
作者：
Tao Y. [1 ]
Qin H. [1 ]
Wan C. [1 ]
Xu F. [2 ]
Xu Y. [1 ]
机构：
[1] College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou
[2] Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd., Hangzhou
来源：
Dianli Xitong Zidonghua/Automation of Electric Power Systems | 2023年 / 47卷 / 21期
关键词：
flexibility; integrated electricity-heat energy system; probabilistic forecasting; stochastic optimization; uncertainty;
D O I：
10.7500/AEPS20221203004
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
There are a variety of flexible resources on the source, grid and load sides of the regional integrated electricity-heat energy system, and the full use of the adjustment ability can effectively deal with the influence of photovoltaic output fluctuation on the system operation. A flexibility aggregation and optimal dispatching method of integrated electricity-heat energy system based on probabilistic forecasting is proposed for the regional integrated electricity-heat energy system with high proportion of photovoltaic access. Firstly, based on the non-parametric probabilistic prediction results of photovoltaic power, a time-dependent photovoltaic output scenario is generated by sampling with Copula function. Secondly, the adaptive robust optimization algorithm is used to aggregate the flexibility resources of the heat network to accurately quantify the maximum power support range of the heat network to the power grid, and realize the decoupling of combined heat and power dispatching. Then, based on the typical photovoltaic output scenario and the maximum flexible operation interval of the power of the heat network, the system stochastic optimization operation model considering the risk of insufficient operation flexibility is established, and the joint dispatching strategy of the regional integrated electricity-heat energy system is obtained by solving the model. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed flexibility aggregation and optimization method for the integrated electricity-heat energy system is verified by the case analysis. © 2023 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press. All rights reserved.
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页码：67 / 78
页数：11
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