Development of an integrated energy management system for off-grid solar applications with advanced solar forecasting, time-of-use tariffs, and direct load control

Effectively managing and maximizing the integration of renewable energy sources is essential for a sustainable power grid due to the stochastic and intermittent nature of renewable energy generation. This study develops a comprehensive Integrated Energy Management System incorporating supply-demand side management in the form of time-of-use credit, direct load control, and generator control to enhance photovoltaic utilization in offgrid applications. A novel three-step solar energy forecasting approach is proposed in this paper, utilizing lowlevel data fusion and regression models to predict next-day photovoltaic generation with improved accuracy, and a rule-based decision algorithm is developed to correct forecast errors and manage loads dynamically. A technoeconomic analysis covering a 20-year duration is carried out for scenarios with and without the integrated energy management system; three configurations are investigated for supplying an off-grid residential home, including diesel generator, diesel generator/photovoltaic system, and diesel generator/photovoltaic system/integrated energy management system. Results reveal that the hybrid configuration with integrated energy management system achieved 44 % and 46 % reductions in costs and carbon dioxide emissions compared to the diesel generator alone, and 8 % and 9 % compared to the diesel generator/photovoltaic setup respectively. The Integrated Energy Management System further enhanced photovoltaic utilisation rate by over 113 % when compared to the diesel generator/photovoltaic system. Further evaluations include customer behaviour impacts, demonstrating that a fully automated system with 100 % compliance significantly outperforms systems with manual customer control, highlighting the detrimental effect of overrides on the efficiency of direct load control. The flexibility of the Integrated Energy Management System framework allows potential adaptation for on-grid applications, showcasing its utility in diverse operational contexts.