Optimal configuration for integrated energy system considering multiple uncertainties

The key of achieving the optimal configuration of integrated energy system (IES) is the selection of equipment types and determination of their number, however, the forecasting errors of energy demand load and renewable energy output, and the failure of equipment, will directly affect the rationality and economy of the configuration scheme. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-objective chance constraint programming method for the IES considering source-network-load multiple uncertainty. This one considers the uncertainty caused by the forecast error of renewable energy output and load demand, and constructs an energy supply and demand balance constraint that satisfies the confidence probability. Aiming at the uncertainty caused by the N-1 failure of equipment, we propose an adjustment margin model. On this basis, the chance constraint of adjusting margin and energy deficit of N-1 equipment is constructed. For the obtained Pareto solution set, a multi-criteria evaluation model is carried out by using the information entropy and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) methods to determine the optimal system energy supply structure. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the optimal configuration of a regional IES, and the effectiveness and reliability are illustrated via experimental results. © 2024 South China University of Technology. All rights reserved.