Research on Coal Power Generation Reduction Path Considering Power Supply Adequacy Constraints Under Carbon Neutrality Target in China

Construction of new-type power system is essential to achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, and how to realize orderly reduction of coal power on the basis of reliable replacement of new energy is the key challenge. Due to constraints such as energy resource endowment, the operating life of coal power generation, power supply adequacy, and the safety of system operation, coal power reduction is extremely difficult in China. Focusing on the constraint of power supply adequacy, the conservative scenario with the most carbon emission quota and installed capacity of coal power was selected as the basic scenario of the coal power reduction path for research, and simulation analysis of power and energy balance from 2020 to 2060 was carried out with self-developed power system carbon-neutral pathway simulation software. The results show that under the basic scenario of coal power reduction, power supply adequacy will face risks in future. In 2030, the shortage of power balance will reach 86GW, and by 2060, the shortage will reach 740 GW. In order to ensure power balance of the system, converting part of coal power generation to emergency power generation backup and demand response can be considered as optimization measures. Finally, based on the above two measures, the research suggestions on the coal power generation reduction path were proposed as follows: about 1400 GW and 820~1070GW coal power will be maintained by 2030 and 2060, respectively; the utilization hours will drop below 1000 by 2060. ©2022 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng.