Adaptive Power Demand Prediction Model of Energy Storage Based on Markov Chain

被引：0

作者：

He J. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Shi C. ^{[1
,2
]}

Wei T. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

[2] School of Electronic Electrical and Communication Engineering, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

[3] School of Electronic Information Engineering, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan

来源：

Diangong Jishu Xuebao/Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society | 2021年 / 36卷

关键词：

Adaptive adjustment; Automatic generation control (AGC); Markov chain; Prediction model; Scenario tree;

D O I：

10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.L90136

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Due to the uncertainty of power demand of energy storage system (ESS) when ESS participates in automatic generation control (AGC) with thermal generators, an adaptive ESS power demand prediction model based on Markov chain is proposed. Firstly, according to the uncertainty of the output power of thermal generators in response to the AGC command, the Markov chain is used to model the ESS power demand in prediction horizon, and a posteriori information is used to adapt to the fluctuations of the AGC command. Secondly, to reasonably select random scenarios of power demand, a scenario tree generation approach with variable prediction horizon is presented. The approach can select scenarios more effectively when the number of nodes is fixed. A simulation was implemented to validate the effectiveness of the prediction model. The results show that compared with the Markov model without adaptive adjustment, the presented adaptive prediction model can improve the prediction accuracy by 8.28%. The prediction accuracy of the presented scenario tree approach is improved by 6.67% compared with the fixed scenario tree structure method, and 4.65% higher than the maximum likelihood estimate method. © 2021, Electrical Technology Press Co. Ltd. All right reserved.

引用

页码：563 / 571

页数：8

共 21 条

[1]

Latif A, Hussain S S, Das D C., State-of-the-art of controllers and soft computing techniques for regulated load frequency management of single/ multi-area traditional and renewable energy based power systems, Applied Energy, 266, (2020)

[2]

Ashouri Z A, Toulabi M, Dobakhshari A S., Frequency stability improvement in wind-thermal dominated power grids, IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution, 14, 4, pp. 619-627, (2020)

[3]

Tang Jie, Li Xinran, Huang Jiyuan, Et al., Capacity allocation of BESS in secondary frequency regulation with the goal of maximum net benefit, Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 34, 5, pp. 963-972, (2019)

[4]

Xie Xiaorong, Guo Yonghong, Wang Bin, Et al., Improving AGC performance of coal-fueled thermal generators using multi-MW scale BESS: a practical application, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 9, 3, pp. 1769-1777, (2018)

[5]

Tan Y, Muttaqi K, Ciufo P., Enhanced frequency regulation using multilevel energy storage in remote area power supply systems, IEEE Transactions on Power System, 34, 1, pp. 163-170, (2019)

[6]

Ma Zhihui, Li Xinran, Tan Zhuangxi, Et al., Integrated control of primary frequency regulation considering dead band of energy storage, Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 34, 10, pp. 2102-2115, (2019)

[7]

Akram U, Nadarajah M, Shah R., A review on rapid responsive energy storage technologies for frequency regulation in modern power systems, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 120, pp. 1-18, (2020)

[8]

Hu Zechun, Luo Haocheng, Research status and prospect of automatic generation control with integration large-scale renewable energy, Automation of Electric Power Systems, 42, 8, pp. 8-21, (2018)

[9]

Sun Bingying, Liu Zongqi, Yang Shuili, Et al., A real-Time optimization method of compensation degree for storage coordinated with thermal power unit in AGC, Power System Technology, 42, 2, pp. 426-433, (2018)

[10]

Sun Bingxiang, Li Yangxi, Gong Minming, Et al., Study on the economy of energy storage system with lithium-ion battery participating in AGC auxiliary service, Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 35, 19, pp. 4048-4061, (2020)

← 1 2 3 →