Modelling and assessing public health policies to counteract Italian measles outbreaks

被引：2

作者：

Scirè G. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] BioPhotonics and Nanomedicine Laboratory (BPNLab), Istituto di Fisica Applicata Nello Carrara, IFAC, CNR, Via Madonna del Piano 10, Sesto Fiorentino

来源：

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling | 2021年 / 16卷 / 04期

关键词：

Communicable diseases; Infodemic; Measles; Public health; Sir model; System dynamics; Vaccination;

D O I：

10.1504/IJSPM.2021.118832

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

This study aims to understand, through explanatory research, the key factors that led to the 2017 measles outbreak in Italy, the causes of the low level of immunisation and the causes of possible cyclical phenomena of measles epidemics. This topic's comprehension has required a holistic approach, merging epidemiological aspects, socioeconomic aspects (including the evolution of mistrust in vaccinations, infodemy and fake news) and health law constraints. A specific SIR system dynamics (SD) model was built to reproduce the relevant cause-and-effect relationships between social interactions, the public institutions' behaviour and the measles outbreaks. SD results permit the assessment of the health policies to counteract the measles outbreaks. Findings, limits and further research recommendations are briefly reported in the conclusions. © 2021 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

引用

页码：271 / 284

页数：13