Improvement of central pressure difference reproducibility in typhoon tracking simulation model considering sea-surface temperature properties

被引：0

作者：

Kobayashi T. ^{[1
]}

Yamada H. ^{[1
]}

Katsuchi H. ^{[1
]}

Fudeyasu H. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Yokohama National University, Japan

来源：

Journal of Wind Engineering | 2020年 / 45卷 / 02期

关键词：

Extreme value; Global warming; Monte-Carlo simulation; Sea-surface temperature; Typhoon tracking simulation model;

D O I：

10.5359/JWE.45.54

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Sea surface temperature change due to the global warming may affect the development of typhoons. In order to estimate extreme wind speed, a tracking model of typhoon simulation considering the sea surface temperature was developed before, but there were some discrepancies between estimation and observation. In this study, from the viewpoint of characteristics of a linear model in the updating calculation, data period for the modeling was restricted to summer based on the number of typhoons approaching to Japan. Focusing on the latitude of 31.5 degrees north where almost all typhoons start to weaken, the termination condition of the typhoons was clarified. In addition, if the value calculated by updating calculation in the model exceeds the threshold, it was recalculated from the time of occurrence of a typhoon. As a result, the typhoon central pressure difference approached the observed value by applying these improvements to the tracking model. © 2020 Japan Association for Wind Engineering. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：54 / 65

页数：11