Evolving agricultural trade structure and its impact on food security in China

International trade of agricultural products plays a crucial role in national food security in China. Using the methods of normalized trade balance index, Hirschman index, Hilbert curve, ridge regression, and visualization analysis, this paper analyzes the evolution of China's agricultural trade structure from 1992 to 2020 and its relationship with food security. This paper finds that: (1) The pattern of China's agricultural trade changed significantly from 1992 to 2020, characterized by an increasing dependency on imports. The trade of agricultural products, such as pork, beef, corn, sorghum, and rapeseed, shifted from exports to imports. The rapid growth of imports which directly increased domestic food supply has improved food security in China. (2) The imports of agricultural products present a combined effect of product structure and spatial structure. As a result, the imports of key agricultural products are likely to be affected by the trade policy changes in some countries such as the United States and Australia. In contrast, the exports of agricultural products show a low concentration. The trade with countries and regions along the Belt and Road has dramatically expanded the exporting destinations, and significantly lowered the geographical concentration of exports. A low level of concentration has helped to ensure the economic benefits of exports and stabilize agricultural production in the export sector. (3) Agricultural production in China has showed an inclination to reduce the production of some imported products. Coupled with the highly concentrated import structure, domestic agricultural production and food security will be vulnerable to external shocks. Based on the findings, it is suggested to optimize the import and export structures of agricultural products, and guide proper agricultural production while adhering to trade openness. © 2022, Science Press. All right reserved.