Association between serum estradiol and cardiovascular health among transgender adults using gender-affirming estrogen therapy

Gender-affirming estrogen therapy (GAET) is commonly used for feminization in transgender and nonbinary (TNB) individuals, yet the optimal rate of change (ROC) in estradiol levels for cardiovascular health is unclear. We examined the association between serum estradiol levels and cardiovascular-related mortality, adverse events, and risk factors in TNB adults using GAET. Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Web of Science were systematically searched (inception-April 2023) for original articles reporting serum estradiol levels and cardiovascular-related mortality, adverse events, and risk factors in TNB adults using GAET. Data extraction was completed in duplicate following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Stratified random effect meta-analyses using serum estradiol ROC (serum estradiol(baseline) - serum estradiol(follow-up)/study duration) was used to assess longitudinal studies (low, 0 < ROC <= 1 pg/mL/mo; moderate, 1 < ROC <= 3 pg/mL/mo; high, ROC >= 3 pg/mL/mo). Thirty-five studies (13 cross-sectional, 19 cohort, and 3 trials) were included. Two studies collectively reported 50 cardiovascular-related deaths, and four collectively reported 23 adverse cardiovascular events. Nineteen studies reporting cardiovascular risk factors were meta-analyzed by ROC stratum (low = 5; moderate = 6; high = 8), demonstrating an association between moderate [0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.22, 0.59 kg/m(2), I-2 = 28.2%] and high (0.46, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.78 kg/m(2); I-2 = 0.0%) serum estradiol ROC and increased body mass index. High (-6.67, 95% CI: -10.65, -2.68 mg/dL; I-2 = 0.0%) serum estradiol ROC was associated with decreased low-density lipoproteins. Low (-7.05, 95% CI: -10.40, -3.70 mmHg; I-2 = 0.0%) and moderate (-3.69, 95% CI: -4.93, -2.45 mmHg; I-2 = 0.0%) serum estradiol ROCs were associated with decreases in systolic blood pressure. In TNB adults using GAET, serum estradiol ROC may influence cardiovascular risk factors, which may have implications for clinical cardiovascular outcomes. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this systematic review and meta-analysis of 35 studies involving 7,745 participants, high rates of serum estradiol change were associated with small increases in body mass index. Moderate to high rates of change were associated with decreases in low-density lipoprotein. Low rates of change were associated with small decreases in systolic blood pressure. Rate of serum estradiol change in adults using gender-affirming estrogen therapy may influence cardiovascular risk factors, though further research is warranted.