Critical review of technologies, data, and scenario elements in net-zero pathway modeling for the chemical industry

Scientists have reached a consensus that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C necessitates achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across all economic sectors. Numerous research institutes have prepared decarbonization strategies for the global and regional chemical industries, utilizing modeling and systems analysis to identify decarbonization pathways with different combinations of low-carbon technologies. However, technology choices and scenario designs vary widely across studies, which precludes generalizability and complicates the use of data and results by the broader decarbonization scenario modeling community. Given the varied scopes and objectives inherent in different system models, there is no standardized set of technology data for use in decarbonization pathways analysis. A systematic literature review of 27 relevant studies was performed, which found opportunities for improving technology representation, technology readiness, scenario consistency, demand factors, and policy interventions, among other quantitative elements. Only 7 out of 27 reviewed studies investigated all types of mitigation technologies, and only 3 studies included all data elements aligning with the proposed rubric in this paper. Considering these opportunities, this review proposes a comprehensive dataset structure and consistent scenario definitions that can enable more comprehensive, comparable, robust, and replicable net-zero decarbonization scenarios by modelers of the chemicals industry moving forward.